Kenai Peninsula Borough Trails commission
TOPIC # 1
POPULATION
This is the first in a series of information sheets prepared for the Kenai Peninsula Borough Trails Commission. The information presented is intended to introduce topics of concern in trails planning.
Is the population of the Peninsula increasing?
The seasonal and permanent resident population of the Peninsula is growing and visitors are a significant factor, especially during the summer months. From a resident population of approximately 10,000 in 1960, the population of the Peninsula is now estimated at 48,098, an increase of almost 500 percent in 35 years.
|
The population nearly doubled on the Peninsula between 1980 and 1990 and continues to grow by at least 2 percent per year (N. Fried, State of Alaska, Department of Labor, personal communication, September 1997).
Population (United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census) |
Kenai Peninsula Borough (or equivalent land areas) (In various census reports, the population is split into different census divisions or districts, i.e., including the Kenai, Kenai-Cook Inlet, part of Anchorage, Seward, Seldovia and Homer units). The Kenai Peninsula Borough was organized in 1964.) |
|
| 1920 | 1,851 | |
| 1930 | 2,425 | |
| 1940 | 3,002 | |
| 1950 | 4,699 | |
| 1960 | 9,053 | |
| 1970 | 15,836 | |
| 1980 | 25,282 | |
| 1990 | 40,802 | |
| 1997 | *48,098 | |
*State of Alaska, Department of Community & Regional Affairs, Memorandum, "FY 99 Revenue Sharing/Safe Communities Population Determinations", estimate for State revenue sharing and municipal assistance program purposes, August 1997. |
||
Land-use pressures
Property-related requests from the public to the Kenai Peninsula Borough Planning Department have varied with changes in population growth rates and the economy of the region. These have been in the form of platting actions (property line changes, subdivisions, dedication or vacations of rights-of-way, etc (Data accumulation began in 1985 when the Planning Department began sequentially numbering files for platting activities).
|
The economic boom of the early 1980s and the economic downturn in the late 1980s are clearly illustrated by the number of platting actions (see graph). Renewed interest in making property changes is apparent in the number of applications received in the 1990's. In 1992 there were 141 files processed, by 1996 the number had grown to 260 (Planning Department, Kenai Peninsula Borough, statistics, memorandum Brown from Parker, May 30, 1997). Of these 260 applications, 229 were plat actions and 53 were requests to vacate land (right-of-way, utility, and section line easements) (Planning Department, Kenai Peninsula Borough, statistics, memorandum Parker/Best from Harris, January 2, 1997).
Visitors
Recreational users also appear to have been increasing, predominantly originating from the Anchorage area but also coming from other parts of the state and from outside Alaska. Visitors to the Alaska State park sites (27 local state park units) and the Kenai Wildlife Refuge (W. Peet, Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, personal conversation and annual statistical records July 1997) together have varied between 1.2 and 1.8 million visitors per year between 1990 and 1996. State Parks has noted that 66 to 75 percent of their visitors are resident Alaskans and only one-fourth to one-third of their visitors are from other parts of the United States or from other countries (K. Reid, Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Department of Parks and Outdoor Recreation, personal conversation and fiscal year statistics).
The year-round Kenai Visitor and Cultural Center opened in April of 1992. From 49,000 visitors recorded in 1992, the number increased to 67,271 visitors in 1996 (Kenai Visitors & Convention Bureau, Inc., statistics). Open from mid-May to mid-September, the Kenai Peninsula Information Center, located in Soldotna, served 6,898 people in 1988, 19,408 in 1993, and 46,807 in 1996 (Kenai Peninsula Information Center, Advisory Reports). The Seward Chamber of Commerce served 24,000 visitors in summer of 1993 and over 38,000 in 1996 (C. Dixon, Seward Chamber of Commerce/Visitor's Center, July 1997). The Homer Visitor Information Center had 10,925 visitors in summer of 1993 and 11,256 in 1996 (Homer Chamber of Commerce, statistics, August 1997). From 1990 to 1996, Kenai Municipal Airport enplanements increased by over eight percent, and year-round traffic counts coming to the Kenai Peninsula on the Seward Highway had increased by approximately nine percent. The Alaska Railroad ridership from Anchorage to Seward has increased by 35 percent since 1990 and cruise ship dockings by 30 percent (Economic Development District, Kenai Peninsula Borough, "1996 Situation and Prospects", ADOT&PF statistics, July 1997).
Projections
Population projections are highly variable depending on the economy, weather, tourism and development marketing, and other factors. Between 1980 and 1990, the growth rate was nearly 5 percent per year. From the period 1990 to 1997, the resident growth rate is estimated at 2 percent per year (N. Fried, State of Alaska, Department of Labor, personal communication, September 1997).
The recent two percent growth rate for the past six years is lower than the growth rates expected by the Alaska Department of Labor (State of Alaska, Department of Labor, "Population Projections, Alaska 1990-2010, November 1991). Their 'low estimate' annual growth rate was 2.93 percent for a year 2000 population of 54,819; their "high estimate" using a 3.26 percent annual rate predicted a Borough population of 56,700 in 2000. New growth projections will be forthcoming from the Department of Labor in the fall of 1997 (G. Williams, State of Alaska, Department of Labor, personal communication, August 1997).
|
Even if the population only increases by approximately two percent per year, as it has in the last few years, the resident population would be 60,550 in 2010, and 73,810 in 2020. While accurate population growth projections are difficult to develop, it is clear that additional population growth is inevitable. Long range planning is the best practical tool to protect the quality of life now enjoyed while still accommodating a more residents and more visitors.